Unconventional Resource Assessment & Valuation

This course is focused on effective business decision making in Unconventional Reservoirs. In a realm where we are constantly dealing with limited data, it is critical that we develop the necessary skill sets required to deal with these so-called statistical plays. The course covers the assessment and valuation methods required for the characterization of resource plays from the selection of “sweet spots” to the forecasting of Proved reserves and PUDs using SPEE Monograph 3 methods. The premise for this course is that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is essential for maximizing profitability. Due to uncertainty and prevailing risks, unconventional resource characterization requires a staged, probabilistic approach conducive to more informed decision-making and portfolio management.

We effectively cover a variety of topics to get you productive quickly, such as:

• Geologic (volumetric and chance) assessment of the resource base (via composite mapping techniques) to find the preferred areas for acreage acquisition and future drilling projects.
• Dealing with limited data sets. It’s not that the information is imperfect, it’s that we are dealing with an imperfect representation of an unknown population. Rather than call it perfect or imperfect, participants will learn how to quantify the uncertainty in terms of confidence levels relative to the number of well samples and the variance in the mean given the sample size. This knowledge is critical to making educated decisions on pilot well counts, well spacing and the testing of new technologies.
• Developing Probabilistic Production Type curves and methods to aggregate to the Project level. Sound knowledge of aggregation is required for the economic evaluation of resource plays.
• The basis and technique for booking 1P and 2P proved undeveloped (PUD) reserves as per SPEE Monograph 3.
• Decision tree concepts, incorporating value of information techniques. The use of a six Stage Gate process to maximize value by assuring focus on the right elements at each stage.
• How do I know if my Type Curve is still representative? The use of Sequential Accumulation plots to validate that your predictions are still within statistical control. This can be applied to drill or completion costs, cycle time estimates, as well as your production forecasts.

View Course Schedule

Course Description (PDF)

KEY THEMES

1. Introduction and Fundamental Concepts
   1. Probability, Distributions, and Dependency
   2. Estimating Under Uncertainty
2. Geologic Uncertainty Management
   1. Composite Mapping, Resource and Chance Assessment Associated with Tight Sands, Tight Carbonates and especially Shale Plays (In Australia and Asia, we have the option to cover Coal Seam Gas Plays.)
3. Reservoir Uncertainty Management
   1. Probabilistic Reserves and Aggregation
   2. Confidence of achievement vs sample size
   3. General Assessment and Valuation Process Following a ‘Stage-Gate’ Approach
4. Performance-Based Reserves Estimation
   1. Production Forecasting and Reserves Estimation
   2. Value Drivers and Sensitivity Analysis of Projects
   3. Value of Information and its Utility in Decision Making
5. Making Decisions with Limited Data Sets
6. Integrative Exercise: Utopia Shale Assessment and Valuation
   1. URAV culminates with a team integrative exercise to find and probabilistically quantify the resource potential, and define operational attributes within defined segments. Teams use the analysis to bid for available acreage, drill initial wells and determine how profitable their efforts have been.