Quantitative Analysis of Risks for CCS Projects

Quantify the magnitude and timing of financial risk for CCS projects, including within periods of peak risk, for up to 1,000 years of project life


  • Estimate failure chances using CCS risk registers at both scoping and project levels. Predict potential monetary impact over ten periods, up to 1,000 years.
  • The Monte Carlo engine simulates and aggregates failure impacts to show peak risk timing and magnitude.
  • Communicate future risks to management and regulators, then implement monitoring systems, reducing failures and financial losses.

Estimation of Future Risk Events

Two risk registers are included: a Scoping List of 36 events and a Project List of 130 events. Each of these event lists are fully customizable by the user. The Scoping List enables the relative ranking of available CCS opportunities in a consistent manner. The Project List provides a basis for the evaluation of the company’s potential investment and possible outcomes.

Up to ten user-defined time periods can be evaluated in the 100-1,000 year range. The user also inputs the range of Monetary Impact in the event of failure.


CarbonSureRA provides quantitative analysis of the pre-injection, injection, and post-injections risks for CCS projects. Risk is defined as the Chance of Failure for an Event multiplied by its Monetary Impact in dollars. Outputs include the timing of a project’s Peak Risk.

Range of potential outcomes for a project


The simulation samples the failure chance and, in the case of failure, the financial impact for each item and year of the project. The distribution of monetary impact for all events is aggregated for each question and the total project over the full life of the project. The outputs can be used to implement measurement, monitoring, and validation programs to minimize the occurrence of such events. Extensive charts and summary tables are provided to show both discrete annual events and the potential range of future outcomes.

Chance of success / failures over time forecasted from project scoping


The ten time intervals are divided into Pre-injection, Injection and Post-injection Risks using SRMS definitions:

Pre-injection Risks (Pg) focus on the chance that the volume and containment studies might result in a decision to exit the project, resulting in lower capital risk to the company.

The SRMS Chance of Development (Pd) focuses on Storage Effectiveness and the Retainment period for the long-term extending up to 1,000 years. This period typically encompasses the period of “Peak Risk” and the largest capital risk.

The simulation calculates and reports the Pg, Pd, and Overall Chance of Success (Pc=Pg x Pd).

Comprehensive reporting

CarbonSureRA provides estimates of the number of events per year, along with extensive tables of chance and impact by event and time period.

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