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Probabilistic Modeling of Resources, Cash Flow, and Economic Metrics

Our ProjectRA software for the integrated probabilistic economic modeling of unconventional projects addresses the challenges of:

  • Multiple play segment characterization
  • Forecasting from limited data sets
  • Pilot-sizing and confidence of achieving the mean
  • Modeling type well decline variability
  • Full-cycle economic portrayal
  • Performance Tracking
  • Modeling in either scoping mode or detailed development mode

ProjectRA fully encompasses the concepts and best practices taught in the R&A courses, especially the Unconventional Resource Assessment and Valuation (URAV) Course.

ProjectRA supports the challenge of effectively modeling diverse unconventional opportunities from exploration through development in a staged approach via a guided workflow. The powerful Monte Carlo simulation engine provides speed and flexibility for a consistent approach conducive to more-informed decision making.


Multiple Play Segments

The basic unit of project investigation is the segment, which may be defined spatially or stratigraphically, whenever you need a different type curve.  Results from the resource assessment and cash flow are output for both the individual segments and the project aggregate. This rapidly helps identify those segments that should be pursued or divested.

Staged Investments

After each segment is defined the stages available in ProjectRA are:

Discovery, tests whether the petroleum system is active, such that you would provide minimal production.  A Shared Chance is modeled via a customizable checklist.

Deliverability tests the project against a minimum average IP rate required for a given number of wells

Demonstrations tests a defined number of wells to demonstrate commercial viability, that is, if the average well has a positive NPV.

Developments drills the wells in your specified acreage tracts at your specified spacing.

Decision Tree Output

Simulation results are presented in both deterministic and probabilistic form. The decision tree shown earlier in Figure 1 provides rapid insight to both the overall project and play segment stages chance of success. Other probabilistic outputs include a dashboard of project metrics at the project, play segment and well level. This includes EUR, NPV and detailed CAPEX, OPEX, etc. for all the trials. Tornado charts are provided to assist the user in identifying the key inputs driving the variability in NPV.

Flexible Type Curve Modeling

ProjectRAProjectRA provides numerous ways to build a type curve and its inherent variability.  You can import from database analogs, import from reservoir simulators or construct the variability to match observations from either. When attempting to match observations, the dependent fluid ratios can be modeled to change through time.

Type curves can also be generated from empirical methods where all input parameters can include uncertainty. An intermediate simulation which can be run which shows the range of EUR per well for the modeled products.

Trumpet Plots and Confidence Curves

ProjectRA features the use of Trumpet Plots to characterize the inherent, irreducible uncertainty of what the mean IP rate will ultimately be when forecasting from existing wells or analog information. Confidence curves support pilot program design where ProjectRA calculates the required # wells required to be 80% (or other user defined confidence level) for a given hurdle rate.

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ProjectRA allows the user to evaluate alternate scenarios and explore the outcomes. In the example in figure 5, two development scenarios with different well spacing may be compared. Further, it is possible to weight the scenarios to evaluate drilling out the project area with variable well spacing or other inputs to the model.


Reality Checks

Volumetrics for the in-place resources and recoverable hydrocarbon volumes can be calculated and used to reality check the type curve estimated EURs. An implied recovery efficiency provides the opportunity to reality check the inputs and range of uncertainties as shown in Figure 6.

ProjectRAThe Trial Summary Table provides access to all the trial sampled inputs and results. Using powerful filtering tools, individual trials can be selected to observe the production, capital, investment streams and economic metrics. These can be used to communicate potential development scenarios and cash-flows for planning or portfolio analysis.

Sequential Aggregation

Sequential Aggregation facilitates tracking the actual performance v’s the predicted P90-to-P10 aggregate range over time for multiple initial production metrics.

This ensures that as well results are captured and the Sequential Aggregation Chart is populated that any deviation outside the p90-p10 envelope is identified and the forecast re-calibrated.

Contact Us

Whether used for scoping or field developing planning, ProjectRA provides a framework to help support the key decisions in the integrated economic evaluation of multi-well projects.

For more information, contact Phil Conway at philconway@roseassoc.com, or 713-528-8422.