Risk, Uncertainty & Economic Analysis of Oil Sands

This course covers the assessment methods required for the technical and economic evaluation of Oil Sands reservoirs. The course is designed for engineers, geoscientists, commercial team members, business analysts and managers who are charged with creating value. This course is based on the idea that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is key for maximizing profitability. Unlike traditional deterministic methods which call for the ongoing study of key parameters to get ever closer to “The Answer,” probabilistic methods recognize that most parameters are fraught with uncertainty.

Course Outline

01. Fundamental Concepts

02. Course Overview

03. Probability, Distributions, and Correlation

04. Estimating Under Uncertainty

05. Decision Trees and Expected Value

06. Reserve Assessment

07. Volumetric EUR Assessment

08. Chance Assessment

09. Resource Stage Gate Assessment

10. Aggregation Principles

11. VOI Assessment

12. Production Type Curve Development

13. Assessment with Limited Data Based on Analogs

14. The Value of Information

Who Should Attend

Engineers, Geoscientists, Commercial Team Members, Business Analysts, Managers

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