Risk Analysis, Prospect Evaluation, and Exploration Economics

Our flagship course, taught over four or five days, covers all phases of exploration decision-making, and has been presented hundreds of times worldwide over the past few decades. With a strong practical orientation and abundant use of realistic exercises, we illustrate the applications and mechanics of the various concepts and analytical procedures involved in the evaluation and investment analysis of exploration prospects. Practical application of concepts and methods is demonstrated for participants using real prospects and abundant learning opportunities in which the student can win or lose small amounts of money. Concludes with a comprehensive integrated exercise where up to 36 concessions can be purchased and the prospects assessed are drilled to relate skill and profitability.

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Course Description (PDF)

Course Outline

01. Introduction to Risk Analysis

02. Statistics – The Language of Uncertainty

03. Embracing Uncertainty

04. Estimating Petroleum Resources

05. Chance of Success: Geologic and Commercial

06. RMAG Prospect Exercise

07. Decision Trees and the Value of Information

08. Exploration Economics: Estimating Profitability

09. Selecting New Plays: The Most Crucial Decision

10. Risk Aversion: Its Impact on Decision Making

11. Prospect Inventories and Portfolio Management

12. Effective Acquisition Strategies: Escaping the Winner’s Curse

13. Assurance and Performance Tracking: The Simple Secret

14. Antelope Ranch Bid Round Capstone Exercise

15. In Conclusion, Skill Pays

Who Should Attend

Geoscientists, Negotiators, Engineers, Economists, and Management

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View Course Schedule

Available Courses

April 8 – 12, 2024

Calgary, AB

8-5 PM


USD $2,900

Get early bird tuition for US$2,590 before March 8th, 2024. Printed course manual available for an additional fee (US$200). Registration for this course ends April 3rd, 2024. GST will apply.

April 15 – 19, 2024

London, UK

8-5 PM CDT


USD $3,600

Get early bird tuition for US$3,200 before February 15th, 2024. Registration for this course ends April 5th, 2024.

May 6 – 10, 2024

Dubai, UAE

8-5 PM


USD $3,600

Get early bird tuition for US$3,200 before March 6, 2024. Registration for this course ends April 26, 2024.

September 23 – 26, 2024

Houston, TX

8:30 – 5 PM CDT


USD $3,100

Get early bird tuition for US$2,790 before July 23rd, 2024. Registration for this course ends September 18th, 2024.

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