Risk Analysis for Complex Traps

This two- or three-day course covers advanced topics that are intended to reinforce and expand upon the concepts learned in Rose & Associates flagship Risk Analysis course. The course’s focus is providing the attendees competency in the valuation of complex traps. This course begins by ensuring a common language of what defines a complex trap and why they are important and difficult to appropriately assess. A general workflow for evaluating complex traps is presented. Concepts such as chance dependencies between zones and play segments, the value of information, and the impact of aggregation on well, and platform development decisions. Exercises, examples and discussions help illustrate and reinforce the concepts presented. A closing real-world exercise, using project data, integrates the complex trap concepts.

Course Outline

01. Introduction

02. Complex Trap Assessment Workflow

03. Overview of Segment and Play Analysis

04. Modeling Dependent Chance Factors

05. Utilizing Aggregation Principles to model the impact of conditional probabilities, then develop a hub for an aggregation of prospects

06. Optional Exercises

07. Development of a Frontier Basin Exercise

08. Real-World Exercise

09. Summary

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