Portfolio Risk Analysis (PortfolioRA)
Analyze and select the drilling portfolio to best deliver your targets for value creation through resource discoveries.
Roll Up the Potential Portfolio Results
This versatile, Excel-based tool aggregates selected prospect assessment data to show you the range of possible outcomes for the modeled portfolio. Compare simulation results against your important exploration metrics such as estimates of commercially recoverable resources, discoveries, costs and, of course, value. Quickly capture prospect details by importing from LSi prospect risk analysis software, enter data by hand or via a custom loader.
Prospect CrossPlots and Ordinal Rankings charts allow you to compare prospects within the portfolio and to easily spot biased prospect estimates for further review. Over fifty prospect variables are available from convenient drop-down lists including resources, chance of success, costs, value and economic indicators. Use the bubble option to apply a third dimension to the CrossPlots chart. Color code prospects by Business Unit, Geologic Play or other descriptors and metrics.
Ranking Tools to Help Select Your Portfolio
Use efficiency metrics to define the optimum portfolio that maximizes value and resources while minimizing costs. Optionally, weight the ranking criteria according to your corporate goals. Our “traffic-light” matrix facilitates portfolio selection via quartile and numerical ranking for all prospects in an easy-to-read visual format.
Model Hubs and Clusters
Group related prospects and quantify their degree of dependence at the chance component to define the group’s Shared Chance and each prospect’s conditional Local Chance. Honor user-selected Shared and Local Dry Hole Tolerances and Group Commercial Thresholds in the simulation.
Choose from Many Simulation Options
Create Time Series plots of the portfolio’s range of discoveries, volumes, costs and value. In mature or frontier areas, where production rates are available or can be estimated, PortfolioRA can simulate a portfolio’s mean or median average daily production or total monthly cumulative production data. As with the volume-based modeling, the simulated results can be evaluated in several charts to gain rapid insight into potential portfolio production.
Output an external workbook detailing the portfolio results associated with every trial color-coded for commercial discovery volumes, non-commercial results, dry holes and wells not drilled or skipped for various reasons including budgetary constraints or group shared or local dry hole tolerances being met.
Be prepared for the hard questions about your program:
- What is the spread of resource outcomes?
- What is the chance of achieving a specified resource goal?
- What is the chance of Gambler’s Ruin?
- How many commercial discoveries can you expect to make?
- What is the range of value created?
- How much will drilling this portfolio cost?
Build Sequential Accumulation charts of cumulative predicted resources and number of discoveries on a well-by-well basis to facilitate tracking of your predictive performance. Easily vary the percentiles designating the predicted symmetric boundaries. Capture actual discovery EUR results to quickly compare cumulative discoveries to predicted discovery volumes to learn if estimation biases exist.
PortfolioRA is ready to assist you build the optimum portfolio!
Contact LSi to learn how PortfolioRA will become an important part of your portfolio management system. Request a free Trial Evaluation today.