Multi-Method Risk Analysis (MMRA) Software
Multi-Method Risk Analysis software (MMRA v5) is our premium workhorse product for prospect and zone evaluation via an easy-to-use Excel-based interface.
MMRA is designed to construct probabilistic resource distributions from a variety of volumetric estimating methods, a chance of geological success from your chance factor estimates, and to incorporate multiple fiscal decision thresholds for Exploration, Appraisal, and Development settings.
The user begins by selecting the method of resource investigation from a dashboard of options:
- Quick Look is used when you need a quick estimate without a lot of bells-and-whistles modeling flexibility
- Area versus Depth (or Gross Rock Volume versus Depth) uses workstation-generated Top Reservoir (or Top and Base Reservoir) area-depth pair values for irregularly shaped traps or fixed fluid contacts. Define the primary water contact variable as productive area, HC column, rock volume or percent fill to simulate the oil and/or gas saturated net rock volume.
- Volumetric Methods using area, average net pay and determination of the recovery yield, or alternatively, gross rock volume, net/gross and the recovery yield;
- Batch MMRA provides importation of input parameter values for many prospects simultaneously from external workbooks simulating resources in a fast and efficient manner;
- Scenario-based interpretations to explore multiple working hypotheses which are mutually exclusive;
- Resource forecasts from Production profiles (Rate-Time option).
Each estimating method provides multiple options with modeling flexibility and complexity (variable shapes, Complex Traps, Number Pay Zone, parameter interdependency, etc) which can be used when appropriate.
A powerful, proprietary VBA Monte Carlo simulation engine performs the calculations. Ensure prospect consistency by easily customizing corporate standards, such as allowed estimating methods, extreme-end truncations, distribution shapes and/or correlations available to users.
Whatever estimating method is selected for modeling the prospect, standardized summary views and outputs facilitate comparison for more informed-decision making.
New to MMRA v5 is Batch modeling of multiple prospects simultaneously. Batch MMRA is integral to teams working lease sales or new geologic plays where many prospects with similar geologic characteristics are being modeled. Capture highside and lowside estimates for the volumetric and yield parameters and chance estimates in a user-defined custom workbook or a Batch-generated template workbook and, with a single click, import the workbook inputs into MMRA and automatically run the intermediate rock volume and hydrocarbon yield simulations along with the final geologic and fiscally-truncated resource distributions. Save simulated outputs as workbooks or individual MMRA files which can be singly modified. Speed up the quality control and prospect comparison tasks by gathering the inputs/outputs from 10s-100s of MMRA modeled prospects into a single workbook and analyze in the new Toolbox v5 Analyze Batch MMRA function.
Also new to MMRA v5 is the Drilling in a Downdip Location (Pwell) function. Input the area for a downdip well and, given a discovery at the well location but an unknown downdip water contact, generate the geological, commercial and economic resource ranges and their chance of success along with, given a dry hole at the well location, the remaining possible resources updip of the drilling location. Investigate a wide range of downdip areas providing to management various metrics to optimize the downdip drilling location in terms of risk and reward.
Built by geoscientists for geoscientists, MMRA will help to build consistency in resource estimates across your organization.
COMING ATTRACTIONS in 2020: The Prospect Risk Analysis Suite is being re-developed in C# with broad new functionality and an improved user interface. This new tool, called RoseRA, combines the power of MMRA, Multi-Zone Master and Toolbox into a single application. Contact R&A for a quick introduction to the new platform and get in on the ground floor with discounted pre-release pricing.