Quantification of Geological Risk
This course focuses on the first two days of our flagship five-day course on Exploration Risk Analysis, primarily on the geotechnical concepts and principles of estimating under uncertainty, especially as related to the measurement of and communication about your prospects. We make use of (1) realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of estimating methods; and (2) analytical procedures involved with uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum exploration. The course identifies fallacies and unintended consequences of many corporate procedures for conducting petroleum exploration, and shows explorers how to get better at what they do.
Course Outline
| Day 1: | Introduction Statistics Dealing with Uncertainty |
| Day 2: | Estimating Ultimate Recovery Chance of Success and Expected Value RMAG Exercise Introduction |
| Day 3: | RMAG Solution Value of Information Play Analysis Portfolio Analysis (focusing on the exercise insights about tradeoffs) Performance Tracking |