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Risk Analysis for Complex Traps

This two- or three-day course covers advanced topics that are intended to reinforce and expand upon the concepts learned in Rose & Associates flagship Risk Analysis course. The course’s focus is providing the attendees competency in the valuation of complex traps.

This course begins by ensuring a common language of what defines a complex trap and why they are important and difficult to appropriately assess. A general workflow for evaluating complex traps is presented. Concepts such as chance dependencies between zones and play segments, the value of information, and the impact of aggregation on well, and platform development decisions. Exercises, examples and discussions help illustrate and reinforce the concepts presented. A closing real-world exercise, using project data, integrates the complex trap concepts.

Complex Traps form a significant portion of today’s prospect inventory. Our subsurface professionals often struggle to appropriately characterize resource development’s with conditional chance assessment. Further, communication of the prospect potential and value is often misrepresented, usually too conservative and decision-makers can find the increasingly complex outputs confusing. This course is relevant to all sub-surface professionals and their leadership who are evaluating complex traps, by giving them tools and skills for evaluating complex traps and improving decision making.

Course Description (PDF)

Who Should Attend: all subsurface professionals and leaders who are evaluation complex traps

Course Outline

Day 1: Introduction
Complex Trap Assessment Workflow
Overview of Segment and Play Analysis
Day 2: Modelling Dependent Chance Factors
Utilizing Aggregation Principles to model the impact of conditional probabilities, then develop a hub for an aggregation of prospects
Day 3: Optional Exercises
Development of a Frontier Basin Exercise
Real-World Exercise