Project Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis
This course deals with estimation under uncertainty through probabilistic estimation. We focus on identifying the key manageable parameters; thereby, helping professionals become proficient estimators and communicators of the main drivers of project value for more responsible characterization and valuation.
| Who Should Attend: | engineers, planners, commercial team members and geoscientists who are charged with creating value beyond an exploration discovery or for conventional reservoir development projects |
Focus areas covered:
- Fundamental Concepts of Dealing with Uncertainty, which begins with applying statistics as a language for understanding and communicating uncertainty, followed by instruction in dealing with uncertainty through better estimating practices
- Petroleum EUR and Production Forecasting, which are cornerstones to project economic valuation
- Economic Valuation and Value of Information assessments, which are central to all decisions we make in our projects. Included are fundamental concepts of identifying key drivers of economic uncertainty. Decision tree concepts, incorporating Bayesian techniques are covered with several practical examples.
The course (1) uses realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of good estimating; (2) illustrates analytical procedures used to identify, quantify, and manage the uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum field development and production; and (3) identifies the flaws and unintended consequences of many procedures currently used for estimating field production. The outline below illustrates why this is the course to help increase the probability of achieving “stretch” reserve and production targets.
Course Outline
| Day 1: | Introduction Probability Distributions and Dependency Dealing with Uncertainty Decision Trees – Introduction |
| Day 2: | Petroleum EUR Uncertainty Chance of Project and Geological Success Production Forecasting |
| Day 3: | Economic Valuation and Aggregation Value of Information -Perfect and Imperfect Performance Tracking |