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Project Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis

This course deals with estimation under uncertainty through probabilistic estimation. We focus on identifying the key manageable parameters; thereby, helping professionals become proficient estimators and communicators of the main drivers of project value for more responsible characterization and valuation.

Course Description (PDF)

Who Should Attend: engineers, planners, commercial team members and geoscientists who are charged with creating value beyond an exploration discovery or for conventional reservoir development projects

Focus areas covered:

  1. Fundamental Concepts of Dealing with Uncertainty, which begins with applying statistics as a language for understanding and communicating uncertainty, followed by instruction in dealing with uncertainty through better estimating practices
  2. Petroleum EUR and Production Forecasting, which are cornerstones to project economic valuation
  3. Economic Valuation and Value of Information assessments, which are central to all decisions we make in our projects. Included are fundamental concepts of identifying key drivers of economic uncertainty. Decision tree concepts, incorporating Bayesian techniques are covered with several practical examples.

The course (1) uses realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of good estimating; (2) illustrates analytical procedures used to identify, quantify, and manage the uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum field development and production; and (3) identifies the flaws and unintended consequences of many procedures currently used for estimating field production. The outline below illustrates why this is the course to help increase the probability of achieving “stretch” reserve and production targets.

Course Outline

Day 1: Introduction
Distributions and Dependency
Dealing with Uncertainty
Decision Trees – Introduction
Day 2: Petroleum EUR Uncertainty
Chance of Project and Geological Success
Production Forecasting
Day 3: Economic Valuation and Aggregation
Value of Information -Perfect and Imperfect
Performance Tracking