Meet Rose & Associates – E & P Risk Assessment Software & Training Team
Who We Are
Rose & Associates, LLP utilizes the best in the business. Period. All of our instructors/consultants have served for decades as explorers, developers, risk team members, portfolio planners, and decision makers. We have been able to compile what no other service company can: a collection of global experts in play, prospect, and development analyses who are superb listeners and communicators.
Peter Carragher, Managing Partner at Rose & Associates, LLP, has been involved in oil and gas exploration since 1974 (after receiving his B.S. degree in Geology from King’s College London and joining Amoco). He has evaluated and drilled prospects in most of the world’s oil and gas provinces. Since 1990, he has been involved in developing and applying exploration risk assessment techniques and portfolio management processes.
From 1989 to 1994, Carragher served as Manager of Amoco’s Basin Analysis Group for Worldwide New Ventures and was then promoted to lead Amoco’s Prospect Quality Team from 1994 until 1997, an effort directly responsible for creating value for Amoco’s Worldwide Exploration effort. He then served for two years as Manager, Upstream Portfolio Analysis for Amoco immediately prior to the merger with BP. In 2003, BP named him as Head of Discipline for Worldwide Exploration, and later named him VP of Geoscience and Exploration, helping assess new resources and identifying new areas of exploration potential.
He has extensive experience in designing exploration strategy, process, and organization capability that has proven to lead to improved business performance. He also is a leader in helping companies liaise more effectively with seismic acquisition vendors at the portfolio level to best leverage a company’s exploration budget.
Gary P. Citron (BS, Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo; MS & PhD in Geology, Cornell University)
During his twenty-year career at Amoco (in the 1980s and 1990s), he served as a geoscientist, exploration supervisor, and asset manager, as well as an internal consultant to executives and team leaders. While at Amoco’s Prospect Quality Team, Dr. Citron actively reviewed prospects prior to and after drilling, and mentored younger geoscientists on prospect measurement. These later assignments at Amoco served him well for his transition to consulting and teaching to the industry.
In February 1999, Dr. Citron joined Rose’s consulting firm, which focused on the field of prospect and play risk analysis. He became the first Partner in Rose & Associates, LLP in 2001 and assumed the role of Managing Partner from 2003 to May 2014, leading Rose & Associates to multiple consecutive years of profitable growth.
Dr. Citron has developed expertise in consensus building in prospect risk assessments and performance tracking of operational activity. In addition to his teaching and consulting obligations associated with conventional and unconventional resource opportunities, he coordinates a yearly gathering of risk team coordinators to share and compare best practices. He also helps companies benchmark their predictive performance against companies in their peer group. In 1999, he was selected by the AAPG to serve in their Visiting Geologist Program. In 2001, he received the best paper award from the AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a ‘Top Ten Oral Presentation’ at the AAPG annual convention in Long Beach.
Dr. Citron regularly donates his time to the AAPG for its education curricula, teaching courses on prospect, play, and shale analysis. He has served in the AAPG House of Delegates and in the SPE as an Associate Editor for the Economics and Management journal (SPEEM). He is a Texas state certified and licensed Geologist who has authored or co-authored more than a dozen publications, and has been an invited and honored speaker for the SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE, and SEG.
David M. Cook, Jr. (BS, Geophysics, Texas A&M University) is an explorationist who served in a variety of interpretation, supervisory, planning, and exploration consulting positions during a 22-year career with Mobil and ExxonMobil. In 1991, he performed Mobil Exploration’s first statistical audit of pre-/post-drill results recommending strategy improvements in process and risk assessment methodology. He assumed management of Mobil’s prospect inventory in 1992, formalized performance reviews, and captured technical “Lessons Learned” for all wildcats.
In 1994, Mr. Cook developed and implemented a globally standardized methodology for pre-drill reserves estimation based on lognormality and reality checking. He organized Mobil’s “Risk/Volumes Network” to ensure consistent reserves and chance of success estimation. During his last assignment, he advised Management on decision analysis techniques, consulted on exploration risk analysis and economics, and transformed Mobil’s prospect inventory into a knowledge management tool, facilitating integrated strategic planning and broader, accelerated global technical learning. He also assisted in development of Mobil’s play/concession portfolio modeling process, provided portfolio rankings based on multi-attribute utility theory, and consulted with Mobil’s worldwide teams on process implementation.
Since joining Rose & Associates, Mr. Cook has conducted resource / risk analysis training and consulted on application of risk processes to specific prospects and geologic plays to E&P clients around the world working in diverse petroleum systems such as Offshore Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Rocky Mountains, Central and South America, Cambodia and Mozambique. Additionally he has developed new courses and updated the firm’s training manuals and presentations.
Since 2004, Mr. Cook has managed R&A’s software subsidiary, Lognormal Solutions Inc., successfully re-developing existing software programs including the Prospect Risk Analysis Suite’s three tools – MMRA, Toolbox and Multi-Zone Master – plus the Portfolio Risk Analysis (PortfolioRA), Risk Essentials and Portfolio Essentials software. Two new software programs have been developed and delivered including the UnConventional Resource Analysis (UCRA) tool for improved probabilistic modeling of low permeability resource play volumes, production, capex/opex spending, cash flow and economic metrics along with the Risk Analysis Portfolio Tracker (RAPT) database, R&A’s performance tracking tool, to allow pre-drill & post-drill resource analysis comparison and provide lessons to facilitate subsequent improvement in resource and chance predictions.
Mr. Cook is a Partner with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A) and Manager of Lognormal Solutions, Inc. (LSi), the software company of Rose & Associates, LLP.
James (Jim) Gouveia, P.Eng. (BaSc, Chemical Engineering, University of Toronto) is a registered Professional Engineer with a diverse technical, business, and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates, LLP in March 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Mr. Gouveia has worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in subsurface production and reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, and portfolio and risk management. Prior to BP’s acquisition of Amoco in 1999, Mr. Gouveia was Director of Risk Management for the Amoco Energy Group of North America. In this role, he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of all major capital projects. In his last roles, Mr. Gouveia led and managed BP’s strategic initiative into unconventional gas resources in Western Canada. With BP, he was a member of several task forces including a world-wide task force focused on growth initiatives in mature basins and developing a portfolio management process for BP’s North American unconventional gas assets. Mr. Gouveia has been a key author in the development of Rose & Associates courses on the assessment of Unconventional resource plays. He has consulted with firms in North America, South America, S.E. Asia and Australia on the resource, reserve and economic evaluation of their Unconventional assets.
Mr. Gouveia was selected to be a Distinguished Lecturer with the Society of Petroleum Engineers for the 2016/2017 session. His talk is titled, “Fooled by Randomness: Making Better Business Decisions with Limited Data Sets.” During his service at Rose & Associates, Jim has provided critical technical advice, consulting and training to a global set of clients from North and South America, Asia, Australia and Europe. Recent engagements include assignments with Chevron, Chesapeake, ConocoPhillips, SWN, PTTEP and Repsol. Jim’s expertise covers all aspects of oil and gas production, ranging from conventional and tight gas fields to heavy oil to unconventional oil and gas. He is the lead developer and custodian of R&A’s “Unconventional Resource Assessment and Valuation” course, a unique offering focused on practical decision making in unconventional resource project. He regularly presents technical talks at the SPEE annual meetings and local SPE, SPEE Chapters. Mr. Gouveia was a contributing author to the SPEE’s 2011 Monograph 3, “Guidelines for the practical evaluation of undeveloped reserves in Resource plays”, and SPE 175527, 175888, and 121525. Mr. Gouveia is a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP and a member of APEGA, SPE, SPEE and AAPG.
Creties D. Jenkins (BSc, Geological Engineering and MSc, Geology, South Dakota School of Mines) is a registered professional geoscientist and engineer in Texas.
He joined Rose & Associates, LLP in February 2013 after 26 years with Tenneco Oil, ARCO, and DeGolyer & MacNaughton. He specializes in the characterization of unconventional reservoirs, including tight sandstones and carbonates, shales, and coals. He has conducted integrated studies, peer reviews, and resources assessment work for dozens of companies around the world. He has also conducted more than one hundred industry courses and workshops over the past decade focused on the exploration, appraisal, and development of tight oil and gas reservoirs.
Creties has served as a technical editor, distinguished lecturer, and distinguished author for SPE and is also a past president of the Energy Minerals Division of AAPG. He is an author of SPEE Monograph 4: “Estimating Ultimate Recovery of Developed Wells in Low-Permeability Reservoirs” (2016) and currently serves on the steering committe for a multi-disciplinary Summit to be held in 2017 called “Building and Applying the Universal Workflow for Low Permeability Oil and Gas Reservoirs”. He is a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.
Mark A. McLane is a Partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates, LLP.
He has a diverse technical and business background spanning more than 25 years in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 Years with Exxon Company, U.S.A. He has co-authored several technical papers, served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado, and was a Distinguished Lecturer of the Society of Petroleum Engineers on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking – An Issue of Professional Ethics” in 2004 and 2005. He has taught courses for the SPE, AAPG, EAGE, and the Houston Geological Society.
He holds a BSc with Honors in Petroleum Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.
Mark Schneider P.Eng. (BS Chemical Engineering, BS Natural Gas Engineering, MS Petroleum Engineering) is a registered Professional Engineer with a diverse technical and business background. During a career of over 35 years, he has lived and worked in North America, Europe, and Asia. He joined Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A) in 2010. He started his career in 1981 with Energy Reserves Group (now BHP Billiton) and was a member of BHP’s first Deepwater Group in 1993 when he decided to start an international career with Maxus Energy (now Repsol) in Indonesia.
In 1997, Maxus set up a systematic risk analysis procedure worldwide and he was an original member of the “Risk Normalization Team,” which was responsible for normalizing prospect risking across all business units. Ever since, he has been a champion and mentor of systematic risk analysis and uncertainty quantification. In 2002, he transferred to Madrid where he took on a variety of challenging technical and managerial roles. Prior to his last position with Repsol as the Director Corporate Reserves, he was part of a QA/QC team that monitored all significant worldwide development projects in the upstream business units.
In 2007, he decided to return to Asia and joined CNOOC in Jakarta. In his last role as Manager of Technical Coordination, his responsibilities included New Ventures, Business Development, Joint Ventures, and internal quality control for prospect generation. Throughout his career, he has demonstrated the ability to guide and influence multi-discipline, multi-cultural teams and to complete multiple tasks on schedule; as well as the ability to communicate clearly and effectively across multiple vertical layers within a large organization.
Since joining R&A, he has traveled around the world teaching risk analysis courses and consulting on a wide range of projects ranging from implementing corporate-wide systematic risk analysis processes for the exploration department of a large integrated company to assisting technical teams on individual prospect evaluations. He has also contributed to the technical enhancement of the software programs that are marketed through R&A’s software subsidiary, Lognormal Solutions Inc.
In 2002, he received the SPE Asia-Pacific Regional Service Award. He has served on many local, regional, and international committees with SPE, AAPG and EAGE. He served three year terms on both the SPE Formation Evaluation Award Committee and Reservoir Description and Dynamics Awards Committee. He was co-chairman on the SPE Asia-Pacific Forum on Stacked, Compartmentalized Reservoirs in Thailand and a steering committee member on the SPE Applied Technology Workshop on Probabilistic Methods in Japan. He is currently a member of AAPG’s Visiting Geoscientist Program. He has co-authored papers published by the SPE, SEG, and IPA. Mark is a Partner with Rose & Associates, LLP.
Peter R. Rose (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and many prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer. Since 1989 he has been deeply involved in design and implementation of comprehensive exploration risk analysis systems for executive management of many major and independent oil companies, operating in both the Domestic and International theaters. His courses emphasize the link between geoscience and making money in the business of petroleum exploration. He is a Senior Associate in the consulting firm, Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A), which he founded in 2000. The firm is a recognized international leader in risk analysis of exploration and development petroleum ventures. Dr. Rose was the 1996/1997 President of the American Association of Petroleum Geologist’s Division of Professional Affairs. He received the coveted Parker Memorial Medal from the American Institute of Professional Geologists in 1998 and was awarded Honorary Membership in AAPG in 2002. He will serve as President of the AAPG beginning in July 2005.
VP, Client Solutions
Phil Conway joined Rose & Associates, LLP in January 2014 as VP of Client Solutions. He has demonstrated strong technical knowledge in a wide range of exploration disciplines, including seismic interpretation, reservoir modeling, prospect and play assessment and valuation, and data management. He received his B.Sc. with Honors in Geology from the University of Liverpool in 1988. He began his career with Chevron as an explorer and has distinguished himself as one who rapidly grasps customer expectations and regularly exceeds them. He has demonstrated that quality with Cogniseis, Schlumberger, GeoKnowledge (as Director of Americas) and most recently as COO at Platte River Associates. At first, he will be focused on our software business, Lognormal Solutions, Inc. in North America.
Marc Bond is a geoscientist who has held a variety of management and interpretation roles in both the international and domestic arena since he started his career in the petroleum industry in 1981 (B.S. Geology, University of California at Santa Cruz, 1977 and MSc, Geophysics, Colorado School of Mines, 1981).
Marc joined Rose and Associates as a Senior Associate in November 2014. Previously he was with BG holding a variety of roles. His most recent position was Chief Geophysicist accountable for delivery of effective performance and technical quality in the Geophysics function
Prior to that he was the Subsurface Assurance Manager for 6 years, responsible for the company-wide subsurface assurance for all projects, including Exploration, Appraisal and Development ventures and conventional and unconventional resources. Marc created, designed and implemented a new subsurface assurance process, which is now embedded into BG. Along with Gary Citron, Marc was instrumental in organising and maintaining the Risk Coordinators workshop and network to share and compare best practices.
He worked several international projects in BG and Tenneco Oil, with substantial experience in Bolivia sub-Andes where he was the Exploration Manager and lead subsurface interpreter. He has significant experience in compressional, difficult terrain seismic interpretation. Other basin experience includes exploration in the North Sea, North and West Africa, Italy and the Rocky Mountains.
Marc has demonstrated strong technical knowledge in a wide range of exploration disciplines, including seismic interpretation, regional evaluation, and prospect and play generation.
He is actively involved in prospect and play assessment and valuation, ensuring that the technical work underpinning the evaluation is of high quality and has appropriately reflected the opportunity capturing both the uncertainty and risk, leading to effective decision-making and designing an optimum portfolio. Marc undertook a major post-well analysis of BG’s portfolio to document an effective understanding of the pre-drill assessment and actual outcomes, leading to improvement in the company’s risk and uncertainty evaluations. The outcome of this work, along with research and further study, led to the creation and development of R&A’s new course offering, “Mitigating Bias, Blindness and Illusion in E&P Decision Making.”
Jeffrey (Jeff) Brown, Ph.D., a Senior Associate and Play Specialist with Rose & Associates, LLP, began working in the petroleum industry in 1979, with more than half of this time spent in the field of prospect and play risk analysis. While at Mobil (21 years) he was a principal in implementation of company-consistent risk analysis processes for both individual prospects and families of prospects (concessions and plays). Since leaving Mobil, he has helped implement industry-standard processes for more than two-dozen companies. He continues to serve as an adviser for many of those firms when specific issues arise.His primary area of focus is in the realm of Play-Based Exploration, involving making quantitative play maps and then using them in decision-making and for validating prospect assessments.
He is an accomplished consultant, facilitator, and teacher that has taught the principles of prospect and play risk analysis to more than 2,000 E&P professionals (including teaching several AAPG-sponsored courses), participated in the risk analysis of literally hundreds of prospects and plays, and developed stochastic, user-friendly software to manage the risk analysis process for both prospects and plays.
He holds M.Sc. and PhD. degrees in Geology from the University of South Carolina and a B.A. with Honors in Geology from Duke University. He is an AAPG/DPA Certified Petroleum Geologist (#5734).
Kellam Colquitt (BS Geology, Texas A&M University), a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP, is a successful exploration and development geologist with extensive experience both domestically and internationally. His 45-year career has included officer and senior management positions at large public and private oil and gas exploration and production companies. In those positions, he was responsible for directing and overseeing domestic exploration efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, West Texas, South Louisiana, the mid-continent and New Mexico.
Internationally, he has worked extensively in many of the South American basins, particularly those in Argentina. Other international experience he has includes exploration in the North Sea and West Africa as well as the Po Valley in Italy. Before joining Rose & Associates in 2009, he served as the Chief Operating Officer for Reef Exploration, L.P. in Richardson, TX. Previously he served as the Vice President of Exploration for Vintage Petroleum, Inc. in Tulsa, OK and earlier was Vice President of North American Operations for Ranger Oil Limited in Houston and Calgary. Beginning in 2003 until Vintage’s sale to Occidental Petroleum in 2006, he focused on new, unconventional resource plays in Texas, Kentucky, New York, and Alabama.
Earlier in his career, he was Exploration Manager for Santa Fe Minerals, Inc in Dallas, TX and an exploration and development geologist for Placid Oil Company in Dallas. In 1995, he began introducing and championing the Rose & Associates, LLP methodology in the companies he served and has utilized their techniques for prospect analysis and resource size estimation for many years on prospects in multiple basins throughout the world.
Paul Haryott has an extensive global background in oil and gas exploration that stretches over the 40 years since he began his career in 1977 in the UK North Sea. Paul holds a BSc in Geology from Liverpool University and a MSc in Petroleum Exploration Studies from Aberdeen University)
Through his subsequent international assignments, he has gained both extensive regional knowledge and commercial understanding of the world’s major petroleum systems He has participated in numerous drilling campaigns that evaluated these basins. Paul is highly skilled in project and team management, and in executing exploration programs in diverse locations.
Paul led Texaco’s Global Review Team commencing in 1999, gaining an in-depth knowledge of managing a major oil company’s exploration risk and uncertainty assessment program. This industry-leading program was subsequently successfully integrated into Chevron in 2001 following the merger of the two companies.
As a senior executive and member of senior management in major oil companies, Paul has considerable experience in the development of exploration strategies, portfolio management, budgetary management, organizational design, and technology alignment that have been associated with considerable business success. Extensively globally networked, he has a special interest in new opportunity development and assessment, both technically and commercially.
He has authored and co-authored numerous publications that include risk and uncertainty insights, and is a member of the AAPG and a Fellow of the Geological Society of Great Britain.
Roger Holeywell has worked in the petroleum industry since the 1960s and has held positions with Diamond Shamrock (Amarillo & Houston), Texas Oil & Gas (Shreveport & Dallas), and Marathon Oil (Houston). During his career he has worked as Senior Exploration Geologist, Exploration Manager, Mapping & Database Supervisor, Corporate Exploration Coordinator, and GIS Manager, among others. He recently retired from Marathon after 37 years of service, having most recently held the position of Geoscience Data Manager.
Roger has degrees in Geology from Texas A&M University (BS) and Brown University (MS), and later in his career returned to school to earn a Master’s Degree in Finance from the University of Texas at Dallas.
Since the early 1990s, Roger has worked in the field of risk analysis and was instrumental in collaborating with Pete Rose to establish the original partnership between R&A and Marathon for software development and marketing. Roger recently celebrated his 20th year as a freelance software developer for R&A. His software projects include MMRA, Portfolio Essentials, Risk Essentials, Multi-zone Master, PlayRA, and Portfolio Rollup. He has also been involved in R&A’s DHI Consortium since its inception 15 years ago and is the author of the Consortium’s primary software tool, SAAM.
Bryce V. Kalynchuk, P.Eng., is a professional engineer and an accomplished leader who has held executive positions in the petroleum industry. With over 20 years of experience in the oil & gas industry, he has held ever increasing responsibility and management positions in his roles at Apache and ExxonMobil, Mobil Oil and Imperial Oil.
Bryce successfully led the merger of BP Canada into Apache Canada post acquisition and Bryce rebalanced Canada’s Portfolio to focus on liquids, which increased proﬁt. He led the Net Asset Valuation initiative to quantify resource potential. Bryce built rapport with energy regulators establishing credibility resulting in resolution of compliance issues. Bryce held authority for ﬁnancial and business affairs and was responsible for reservoir engineering, capital allocation, planning and regulatory.
He has strong technical fundamentals in reservoir engineering and production engineering management. Bryce engaged engineering teams to develop business software solutions improving employee efﬁciency.
He holds a B. Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Alberta and completed Thunderbird’s Advanced Management Program for Oil & Gas Industry Executives. He is a responsible member of APEGA registered in the Province of Alberta. Bryce is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP.
James A. MacKay (BS Geology, Brigham Young University, 1968) recently completed a distinguished 34-year career with Chevron Texaco Inc. as an Exploration Risk Analyst for their Global Risk Team. He has worked previously as a Geologist, Geophysicist, Economist, Exploration Manager, Planning Manager, and Research Scientist. In his research role, he was instrumental in developing Texaco’s global approach to risk analysis. He regularly taught risk analysis for Texaco and continues to teach for the AAPG.
He is a Certified Petroleum Geologist within AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and is a Registered Geologist in the state of California. He is a co-author of the book “Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration” published by Academic Press. He is also the author of several papers that emphasize the concept of risk aversion as a tool for working interest selection. In 2002, he served as the invited lecturer for the AAPG Distinguished International Lecture Tour, where he visited seven Latin American countries. He is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP.
Liu (Sharon) Mingfang
Liu Mingfang has an English and foreign trade education background and for the past 10 years has worked with the Chinese national oil companies and in-country oil and gas companies selling software and seismic data. Liu has a team of geologists that work with her to promote and utilize the Player software to help Chinese companies maximize their exploration success, both conventional and unconventional.
Robert (Bob) M. Otis (BS, PhD, Geophysics, University of Utah) is an earth scientist with 28 years of experience in domestic and international petroleum exploration. He began his career in 1976 with Mobil, where he focused on various research topics and then exploration of the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Alaska. He moved to Chevron in 1985 and worked on various international exploration assignments, including the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Argentina and Angola.
During the early 1990s, Dr. Otis spent five years developing, and then managing Chevron’s international Exploration Evaluation Division. His work included prospect risk and volume assessment, documentation of Chevron’s international exploration evaluation process and internal training. His experiences were published in a landmark AAPG Bulletin article (Otis and Schneidermann, 1997) on risk and volume assessment in exploration. In his last assignment with ChevronTexaco he was a key participant with their new Exploration Review Team, a comprehensive technical review group responsible for the consistency, integrity, and credibility of geologic risk and volume assessments for ChevronTexaco’s worldwide inventory of prospects and leads. This effort was a key driver in ChevronTexaco’s emergence as an industry leader in exploration after the merger of Chevron and Texaco in 2001. Dr. Otis is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP.
Robert (Bob) Turner ( B.Sc. Geology honours, King’s College London; Ph. D. Geology, University of Sheffield; P.Geol.) is an exploration and exploitation geologist with more than thirty years of industry experience. He has had broad exposure to all aspects of geoscience but has particular technical expertise in biostratigraphy, basin analysis, carbonates and regional geology. He spent 19 years with Amoco including two international assignments and served in increasingly responsible management roles in Crestar Energy, Gulf Canada, Conoco Canada and ConocoPhillips Canada.
After varied roles in exploration and production teams he spent time with Amoco as a strategic planner, led the local Canadian Exploration Risk Evaluation Team for two years, and developed significant facilitation skills as a Team Lead integrating Project Planning Processes into the Canadian organizational structure. During this period he worked closely with the Corporate Risk Analysis and Portfolio Management Team for four years and gained invaluable insights into what works and what doesn’t in the world of E&P Portfolio Management.
After leaving Amoco in 1999 he occupied successive roles as Chief Geologist, Chief Geoscientist, Exploration Manager, Asset Manager and finally Exploration Vice President. Working as the Chief Geoscientist he led the effort to implement probabilistic risk analysis and portfolio management in Gulf Canada and gained hands-on experience of the practical challenges of changing the tactical vision of a large organization and requiring an experienced workforce to alter their existing work processes. As an Asset Manager and Vice President he was responsible for an extensive exploration and production organization and managed large budgets and drilling programs. He also led an ongoing effort to optimize existing base production, de-bottleneck gathering systems and processing plants and reduce field down-time. As a decision maker he routinely used probabilistic forecasting tools and performance tracking techniques over a five year period to manage opportunities, make better decisions and significantly improve business results. Dr. Turner is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP.
Raymond (Ray) Young (B.Sc. Geology, University College London; D.Phil. Clastic Sedimentology, University of Oxford) is a petroleum geologist who has lived and worked in six countries on five continents. He has 36 years of industry experience, the last eight of which have been teaching and consulting across the globe on the various aspects of risk analysis for Rose & Associates, LLP.
Before joining Rose & Associates LLP in 2004, his career was largely spent with BP/Sohio (10 years), Young Energy Ltd. (2 years), Maxus/YPF/Repsol (11 years) and Santos USA (3.5 years) where he gained extensive international and domestic experience in exploration, development, acquisitions and divestitures, operations, and training and research. From 1991-2004, Dr. Young held the position of Chief Geologist with the primary responsibilities of geological technical leadership, audit, and transfer. His interest in risk analysis started in 1997 when he helped Maxus set up a systematic risk analysis procedure worldwide and led the “Risk Normalization Team” which was responsible for normalizing prospect risking across all business units.
Dr. Young has published more than a dozen papers or abstracts and is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP.
Shaoyong Yu (Ph.D., P. Eng.), a Senior Associate, has more than 30 years’ experience in the upstream of the oil & gas industry (more than 16 years in Canada and 15 years’ in both North Sea, North Africa and East China). He has been involved and responsible for various activities, such as Conventional and Unonventional Reservoirs’ Reserve Booking (EUR estimation), Production Forecast & Type Curve generation with advanced reservoir engineering methodologies (Empirical, Analytical and Numerical); Economic Evaluation, Risk & Uncertainty Analysis for both conventional and unconventional reservoirs development, Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) and Pressure Transient Analysis (PTA); Water-flooding Design, Implementation and Surveillance; Numerical Reservoir Simulation; Formation Evaluations with Data of Well Logging, Testing and Production; PVT and Special Core Analysis.
During his more than 10 year career at ConocoPhillips Canada, he served as various positions. Prior to leaving the company, as a Sr. Reservoir Engineering Technical Advisor, he was responsible for technically assuring works and projects of both conventional and unconventional reservoir engineering, provided guidance, training and coaching for Reservoir Engineers, developed and implemented standard workflows and tools for type curve generation in resources play, production data analysis of horizontal wells with multi-stages fracturing in tight/shale reservoirs, and advised on standardizing approaches of risk and uncertainty analysis on unconventional resources.
Dr. Yu developed the “Modified Stretch Exponential Production Decline (YM-SEPD)” methodology that was adopted by SPEE as one of the empirical methods for production forecast & EUR estimation for horizontal wells. He also invented the methodology of “Condensate and Gas Ratio (CGR) forecast for horizontal wells in Retrograde Gas reservoirs” that has been recently adopted by Alberta Energy Regulatory (AER) as a recommended condensate forecasting method for Duvernay shale gas producers.
Dr. Yu has authored and co-authored numerous publications of SPE papers and 3 books (in Chinese). He is a member of APEGA, SPEE and SPE.
Dewayne Bagley is an Associate with Lognormal Solutions, Inc. (LSi), the software company owned by Rose & Associates, LLP. He worked in the regional and corporate exploration teams at SM Energy as a Reservoir Engineer for three years, leading the teams in the economic and risk analysis of unconventional prospects.
For the past twelve years, he has developed software solutions for a variety of industries with a particular focus on Excel programming. For the last two years, he has developed the UCRA v2 with its migration from a formula-based workbook to its advanced VBA functionality.
He has a BS in Nuclear Engineering from Texas A&M University.