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New to the stable of Rose & Associates risk analysis tools, UCRA is built specifically to model your drilling program in unconventional resource plays.

Facilitate the value assessment of unconventional development projects and understanding of critical uncertainties

UCRA was designed as:

An integrated performance, cost, and economic model that captures the range of project uncertainty for different development scenarios

UCRA (UnConventional Resource Analysis) probabilistically models a resource base from type well curves as well as volumetric considerations. Production volumes are scheduled over time so that distributions of monthly program production, number of active wells, and costs provide cash flows that lead to multiple economic indicators. These values are readily exportable for more detailed price deck sensitivities and AFIT analysis.

UCRA uses the Oracle’s Crystal Ball Excel add-in to run the Monte Carlo simulations. Utilizing the trusted risk assessment methods taught in the Rose & Associates courses on unconventional resource plays, you can achieve results to provide a better understanding and characterization of available unconventional opportunities for more informed decision making.

Conceptually, here’s what UCRA is up to:

Your model develops a field based upon an input drilling schedule and input well spacing. The number of locations is based upon your acreage description and well spacing.

Well performance is based upon a type-well described by a range in the IP, Decline, Min Decline, b, and the final rate.

The development of the field is subject to the conditions you set regarding the:

• The results of the initial wells to test the viability of the play (as measured by reaching the P99 of the IP), also known as the Pg; and the
• Success of the next stage of drilling, known as the pilot program (through verification of economic viability).

Through drilling your initial wells is there a possibility that your UCR play could fail for geologic reasons to deliver the P99 of your forecast IP distribution?

Select the type of play you are investigating (tight sand/carbonate, shale, or CBM) and input your confidence that your prescribed geologic ingredients will meet the minimum criteria associated with the P99 of the IP of your designed type curve. This represents your confidence of passing through the “Exploration Stage Gate”. If you like, model a favorability score for better comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of individual unconventional plays.

Model Your Pilot Program

Identify the ranged number of initial test wells and then the subsequent number of pilot wells to include in the total pilot program. Land, seismic and overhead costs can also be modeled with the pilot program.

Model the Drilling Inputs

Model the Development Parameters

Recognize the true variability associated with the unconventional wells by modeling a range for IP, initial and terminal decline rates, and the final shut-in rate. Model interference from down spacing to represent depletion from nearby wells. Range the operating costs per well and/or volume recovered.

Understand The Results

Single step through Crystal Ball Monte Carlo iterations to understand sampled play parameters effect on the production, costs and value. Alternatively, view the full stochastic range of the program’s deliverables.

UCRA provides the detail needed to compare and contrast your unconventional opportunities so that you can high-grade the best projects and exit those that don’t meet your portfolio goals.

Contact us today to learn more about this valuable software tool. Or, request a Trial Evaluation Package to see for yourself how easy it is to get sophisticated risk analysis results with clarity and line of sight.