Course Description

Deepwater realms around the world remain one of the most important sources of new field reserves and production. Not surprisingly then, it is one of the main drivers of value creation for much of the exploration industry. In order to create the value forecast, we need to ensure that the opportunities are described, characterized, and communicated so that they contribute to relatively unbiased (and thus reliable) global portfolios.

We begin with a panoramic view of the world’s deepwater realms, and then systematically link estimation under uncertainty to the petroleum system – from source and migration, to reservoir quality, to trap definition and containment. After a refresher on uncertainty, resource estimation, and calculation techniques, we cover each probability element with worldwide examples to characterize the resource distribution, given success, and the probability of meeting certain value metrics. We also give special attention to multiple-zone evaluations covering various types and amounts of geological dependence.

Since many deepwater fields and prospects in Tertiary age targets tend to be amplitude-related, we also focus on a comprehensive, systematic, and calibrated amplitude grading scheme, gleaned from industry consortiums, to cross-check and influence the prospect resource variance and probability of success.

We conclude with techniques for measuring the predictive performance of exploration and production forecasts in the deepwater realm.

Course Outline

Day 1: Introduction; Statistics as the Language of Uncertainty; Estimation Under Uncertainty; Resource Estimation Techniques and Reality Checks; Probability Assessment Along the Petroleum System.

Day 2: Multiple Zone Evaluation; Complex Trap Analysis; Amplitude Analysis: Interpretation and Techniques; Risk Analysis of Deepwater Examples; Measurement of the Predictive Performance; Conclusions

Course Documentation

2D RA of Deepwater Expl.pdf (27.5k)