Rose & Associates: Transferring E&P Risk Assessment Expertise

Peter R. Rose P.G. (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and many prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer. Since 1989 he has been deeply involved in design and implementation of comprehensive exploration risk analysis systems for executive management of many major and independent oil companies, operating in both the Domestic and International theaters. His courses emphasize the link between geoscience and making money in the business of petroleum exploration. Dr. Rose was the 1996/1997 President of AAPG's Division of Professional Affairs. He received the coveted Parker Memorial Medal from the American Institute of Professional Geologists in 1998 and was awarded Honorary Membership in AAPG in 2002. Pete served as President of AAPG from July 2005 to June 2006. He is the founder of Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A), and currently serves as Senior Associate.

Gary P. Citron (BS, Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo; MS & PhD in Geology, Cornell University).

After a twenty year career as a geoscientist, manager, and internal consultant for Amoco exploration business, Gary joined Pete Rose’s consulting firm in February 1999, which focuses on the field of prospect and play risk analysis. Gary became Pete’s first Partner in Rose & Associates, LLP in 2001 and assumed the role of Managing Partner in 2003.

In his last assignment at Amoco, he worked with exploration teams worldwide for four years, helping them assess prospect component ranges and associated chance factors. Dr. Citron has developed expertise in consensus building in risk assessments and performance tracking. He also coordinated the yearly post appraisal of the drilling program which helped institutionalize learning throughout the exploration business. In 1999 he was selected by the AAPG to serve in their Visiting Geologist Program. While at Amoco, Dr. Citron actively mentored younger geoscientists on prospect measurement. In 2001, he received the best paper award from the AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a ‘Top Ten Oral Presentation’ at the AAPG annual convention in Long Beach. Gary remains active in the AAPG House of Delegates, and continues to serve on committees for the AAPG and the SPE. He is a Texas State certified and licensed Geologist who has authored or co-authored more than a dozen publications, and has been an invited and honored speaker for the SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE and SEG.

Mark A. McLane is a Partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A). R&A provides risk analysis education, software and consulting services for more than 40 companies worldwide.

He has a diverse technical and business background spanning more than 25 years in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 Years with Exxon Company, U.S.A. He has co-authored several technical papers, served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado and was a Distinguished Lecturer of the Society of Petroleum Engineers on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking – An Issue of Professional Ethics” in 2004 and 2005. He has taught courses for the SPE, AAPG, EAGE and the Houston Geological Society.

He holds a BSc with Honors in Petroleum Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.

James (Jim) Gouveia P.Eng. (BaSc, Chemical Engineering, University of Toronto) is a registered Professional Engineer with a diverse technical, business and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in March 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Mr. Gouveia has worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in subsurface production and reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, Portfolio and Risk management, and Project management. Prior to BP's acquisition of Amoco in 1999 Mr. Gouveia was Director of Risk Management for the Amoco Energy Group of North America. He was the recipient of the Chairman's Award and Presidential Award for his work in implementing project management, risk and portfolio management processes within Amoco Canada. Following the merger he functioned as the Risk and Assurance Coordinator for Canada. In his last roles with BP, Mr. Gouveia was a Resource Manager where he led multi-disciplined teams. He led and managed BP's strategic initiative into Tight Gas in Western Canada. With BP he was a member of several task forces including world-wide task force focusing in on growth initiatives in mature basins, and developing a portfolio management process for BP's North American Unconventional gas assets. Mr. Gouveia has taught several courses for BP, Amoco and Husky including; Project Management Basics, Risk Assurance Workshops, Probabilistic Production Forecasting Workshops, Geologic and Engineering Risk basics and Implementing Probabilistic Geoscience and Engineering Risk processes. He is a Partner with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A).

David M. Cook, Jr. (BS, Geophysics, Texas A&M University) is an explorationist who served in a variety of interpretation, supervisory, planning, and exploration consulting positions during a 22-year career with Mobil and ExxonMobil. In 1991, he performed Mobil Exploration's first statistical audit of pre-/post-drill results recommending strategy improvements in process and risk assessment methodology. He assumed management of Mobil's prospect inventory in 1992, formalized performance reviews, and captured technical "Lessons Learned" for all wildcats. In 1994, Mr. Cook developed and implemented a globally standardized methodology for pre-drill reserves estimation based on lognormality and reality checking. He organized and led Mobil's "Risk/Volumes Network" to ensure consistent reserves and chance of success estimation. During his last assignment, he advised Management on decision analysis techniques, consulted on exploration risk analysis and economics, and transformed Mobil's prospect inventory into a knowledge management tool, facilitating integrated strategic planning and broader, accelerated global technical learning. He also assisted in development of Mobil's play/concession portfolio modeling process, provided portfolio rankings based on multi-attribute utility theory, and consulted with Mobil's worldwide teams on process implementation. Mr. Cook is a Partner with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A) and manager of Lognormal Solutions, Inc. (LSi), the software company owned by Rose & Associates.

James A. MacKay (BS Geology, Brigham Young University, 1968) recently completed a distinguished 34-year career with Chevron Texaco Inc. as an Exploration Risk Analyst for their Global Risk Team. Jim has worked previously as a Geologist, Geophysicist, Economist, Exploration Manager, Planning Manager and Research Scientist. In his research role, he was instrumental in developing Texaco's global approach to risk analysis. He regularly taught risk analysis for Texaco and continues to teach for the AAPG. Jim is a Certified Petroleum Geologist within AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and is a Registered Geologist in the state of California. He is a coauthor of the book "Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration" published by Academic Press. He is also the author of several papers that emphasize the concept of risk aversion as a tool for working interest selection. In 2002 Jim served as the invited lecturer for the AAPG Distinguished International Lecture Tour, where he visited seven Latin American countries. He is a Partner with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A).

Robert (Bob) M. Otis (BS, PhD, Geophysics, University of Utah) is an earth scientist with 28 years of experience in domestic and international petroleum exploration. Bob began his career in 1976 with Mobil, where he focused on various research topics and then exploration of the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Alaska. He moved to Chevron in 1985 and worked on various international exploration assignments, including the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Argentina and Angola. During the early 1990s, Dr. Otis spent five years developing, and then managing Chevron's international Exploration Evaluation Division. His work included prospect risk and volume assessment, documentation of Chevron's international exploration evaluation process and internal training. His experiences were published in a landmark AAPG Bulletin article (Otis and Schneidermann, 1997) on risk and volume assessment in exploration. In his last assignment with ChevronTexaco he was a key participant with their new Exploration Review Team, a comprehensive technical review group responsible for the consistency, integrity and credibility of geologic risk and volume assessments for ChevronTexaco’s worldwide inventory of prospects and leads. This effort was a key driver in ChevronTexaco's emergence as an industry leader in exploration after the merger of Chevron and Texaco in 2001. Dr. Otis is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A).

Raymond (Ray) Young (B.Sc. Geology, University College London; D.Phil. Clastic Sedimentology, University of Oxford) is a petroleum geologist who has lived and worked in six countries on five continents. Before joining Rose and Associates LLP in 2004, his 28 year career was largely spent in BP/Sohio (10 years), Young Energy Ltd. (2 years), Maxus/YPF/Repsol (11 years) and Santos USA (3.5 years) where he gained extensive international and domestic experience in exploration, development, acquisitions and divestitures, operations, training and research. Since 1991 Dr. Young has held the position of Chief Geologist with the primary responsibilities of geological technical leadership, audit and transfer. His interest in risk analysis started in 1997 when he helped Maxus set up a systematic risk analysis procedure worldwide and led the “Risk Normalization Team” which was responsible for normalizing prospect risking across all business units. While at Santos, some of his primary job functions were to evaluate asset and corporate acquisitions and to facilitate the risk analysis process within the office, especially peer-reviews and post-well audits. He has published a dozen papers or abstracts and has developed and taught ten different schools on various aspects of geology. Dr Young is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A).

Robert (Bob) Turner ( B.Sc. Geology honours, King’s College London; Ph. D. Geology, University of Sheffield; P.Geol.) is an exploration and exploitation geologist with more than thirty years of industry experience. He has had broad exposure to all aspects of geoscience but has particular technical expertise in biostratigraphy, basin analysis, carbonates and regional geology. He spent 19 years with Amoco including two international assignments and served in increasingly responsible management roles in Crestar Energy, Gulf Canada, Conoco Canada and ConocoPhillips Canada. After varied roles in exploration and production teams he spent time with Amoco as a strategic planner, led the local Canadian Exploration Risk Evaluation Team for two years, and developed significant facilitation skills as a Team Lead integrating Project Planning Processes into the Canadian organizational structure. During this period he worked closely with the Corporate Risk Analysis and Portfolio Management Team for four years and gained invaluable insights into what works and what doesn’t in the world of E&P Portfolio Management. After leaving Amoco in 1999 he occupied successive roles as Chief Geologist, Chief Geoscientist, Exploration Manager, Asset Manager and finally Exploration Vice President. Working as the Chief Geoscientist he led the effort to implement probabilistic risk analysis and portfolio management in Gulf Canada and gained hands-on experience of the practical challenges of changing the tactical vision of a large organization and requiring an experienced workforce to alter their existing work processes. As an Asset Manager and Vice President he was responsible for an extensive exploration and production organization and managed large budgets and drilling programs. He also led an ongoing effort to optimize existing base production, de-bottleneck gathering systems and processing plants and reduce field down-time. As a decision maker he routinely used probabilistic forecasting tools and performance tracking techniques over a five year period to manage opportunities, make better decisions and significantly improve business results. Dr. Turner is a Senior Associate with Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A).

Kellam Colquitt (BS Geology, Texas A&M University) is a successful exploration and development geologist with extensive experience both domestically and internationally. His 38 year career has included officer and senior management positions at large public and private oil and gas exploration and production companies. In those positions he was responsible for directing and overseeing domestic exploration efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, west Texas, south Louisiana, the mid-continent and New Mexico. Internationally he has worked extensively in many of the South American basins, particularly those in Argentina. Other international experience has included exploration in the North Sea and west Africa as well as the Po Valley in Italy. Before joining Rose & Associates in 2009 he served as the Chief Operating Officer for Reef Exploration, L.P. in Richardson, TX. Previously he served as the Vice President of Exploration for Vintage Petroleum, Inc. in Tulsa, OK and earlier was Vice President of North American Operations for Ranger Oil Limited in Houston and Calgary. Beginning in 2003 until Vintage’s sale to Occidental Petroleum in 2006 he focused on new, unconventional resource plays in Texas, Kentucky, New York and Alabama. Earlier in his career he was Exploration Manager for Santa Fe Minerals, Inc in Dallas, TX and an exploration and development geologist for Placid Oil Company in Dallas. In 1995 he began introducing and championing the Rose & Associates methodology in the companies he served and has utilized their techniques for prospect analysis and resource size estimation for many years on prospects in multiple basins throughout the world. Kellam is a Senior Associate.

Peter Carragher has been involved in oil and gas exploration since 1974 (after receiving his B.S. degree in geology from King’s College London and joining Amoco). He has evaluated and drilled prospects in most of the world’s oil and gas provinces. Since 1990 he has been involved in developing and applying exploration risk assessment techniques and portfolio management processes. From 1989 to 1994 Pete served as Manager of Amoco’s Basin Analysis Group for Worldwide New Ventures and was then promoted to lead Amoco’s Prospect Quality Team from 1994 until 1997, an effort directly responsible for creating value for Amoco’ Worldwide Exploration effort. He then served for 2 years as Manager, Upstream Portfolio Analysis for Amoco immediately prior to the merger with BP. In 2003 BP named Pete as Head of Discipline for Worldwide Exploration, and later named him VP of Geoscience and Exploration, helping assess new resources and identifying new areas of exploration potential. Pete has extensive experience in designing exploration strategy, process, and organization capability that has proven to lead to improved business performance. Pete also is a leader in helping companies liaise more effectively with seismic acquisition vendors at the portfolio level to best leverage a company’s exploration budget.

Mark Schneider P.Eng. (BS Chemical Engineering, BS Natural Gas Engineering, MS Petroleum Engineering) is a registered Professional Engineer with a diverse technical and business background. During his almost 30 years in the industry, he has lived and worked in North America, Europe and Asia. In September 2010, he joined Rose and Associates LLP (R&A) as a Senior Associate. He started his career in 1981 with Energy Reserves Group (now BHP Billiton) working as a production and reservoir engineer. He was a member of BHP’s first Deepwater Group in 1993 when he decided to start an international career with Maxus Energy (now Repsol) in Indonesia. In 1997, Maxus set up a systematic risk analysis procedure worldwide and he was an original member of the “Risk Normalization Team” which was responsible for normalizing prospect risking across all business units. Ever since, he has been a champion and mentor of systematic risk analysis and uncertainty quantification. In 2002, he transferred to Madrid where he took on a variety of challenging technical and managerial roles. Prior to his last position with Repsol as the Director Corporate Reserves, he was part of a QA/QC team that monitored all significant development projects in the upstream business units. In 2007, he decided to return to Asia and joined CNOOC in Jakarta. In his last role as Manager Technical Coordination, his responsibilities included New Ventures, Business Development, Joint Ventures and internal quality control for prospect generation. Throughout his career, he has demonstrated the ability to guide and influence multi-discipline, multi-cultural teams and complete multiple tasks on schedule, as well as the ability to communicate clearly and effectively across multiple vertical layers within a large organization. In 2002, he received the SPE Asia-Pacific Regional Service Award. He has served on many local, regional and international committees with SPE including both the Formation Evaluation and Reservoir Engineering Awards Committees. He was co-chairman for the 1999 SPE Asia-Pacific Forum Series on Stacked, Compartmentalized Reservoirs in Thailand and a steering committee member of the 2002 SPE Applied Technology Workshop on Probabilistic Methods in Japan. He has co-authored papers in the SPE, SEG and IPA literature.

Denise M. Stone is a geologist who has been involved in international and domestic oil and gas exploration for over twenty years. During her career she has worked at Unocal, Superior Oil International, Mobil, Amoco and BP. She currently maintains a role as an independent geological consultant in Houston, Texas. Denise has a B.S. in Geology from Texas Christian University and a M.S. in Geology from Memphis State University. She is a Licensed Professional Geoscientist (#1550) in the State of Texas and also is an AAPG Certified Petroleum Geologist (#5622). Denise has served the Houston Geological Society in many leadership roles, including President (2002-2003). In addition, she is very active in the AAPG. In 2008 she was elected to the Advisory Council for a 3 year term representing the Gulf Coast Region. She is a past Chairman of the Houston House of Delegates. As a long standing member of the Publications Committee, Denise is currently serving as editor for a special publication of the AAPG concerning the Oil and Gas Fields of the Cook Inlet of Alaska. Denise is the Director of Business Development for R&A.